I may be a cold soulless emotionless robot who walks alone through the valley of darkness most of the time, but when it comes to sports, I am an eternal optimist. Hell, I'm still watching Rangers games waiting for them to start the winning streak that will catapult them into the playoffs. But there's no better time of the year to be optimistic than this time of year, because it's spring training time. Time to start talking about baseball without having to deal with the cold hard reality of your team actually losing a game. And as this page will soon be transmogrified from the place where I talk about random crap and post indy wrestling reviews really slowly into the place where I hoot and holler about how great the Mets are doing, it's time for me to kick off My Unbiased New York Mets Preview 2003 (or, Why The Mets Will Win The World Series). This is the part where I talk about the Mets' lineup this year and how everyone is going to have the season of their lives to achieve the unprecedented 162-0 record and drive George Steinbrenner insane. I mean, even more insane.

I plan to take a journey around the Mets' starting lineup in the coming days and weeks, commenting on each position and the players likely to be stationed there. And most of this will be me talking about how awesome the Mets are, but I'm going to start on a less than optimistic note.

Centerfield

New Mets manager Art Howe has apparently already decided, with spring training barely underway, that Roger Cedeno will start in center and bat leadoff this upcoming season, and I have to shake my head. There's no plausible justification for this aside from the inability to unload Cedeno and his outrageous contract this offseason. And while I agree with the logic that putting Cedeno in the leadoff spot and keeping him there will probalby be better for his offensive production that Bobby Valentine's musical chairs lineups of a year ago were, I still don't see how it will be enough to make him the best choice in center. Leaving defensive concerns aside for a moment, let's take a look at some numbers.

Last season, Cedeno hit .260/.318/.346 (avg/obp/slg) in 511 at-bats. Not particularly inspiring numbers for a leadoff hitter, especially when compared to the competition, who I'll get to in a moment. Getting on base is the leaoff hitter's job. And the only projected starter for the Mets who had a lower OBP than Cedeno last year was Jeromy Burnitz, whose season was altogether disastrous. Presumably the Mets are hoping that Cedeno will bounce back somewhat to the form that his given him numbers of .278/.339/.377 on average over the past three seasons, but not only is that rather optimistic, there is still a better solution.

The Mets' most regular centerfielder last year while Cedeno was in left was Timo Perez. Now, Timo put up better overall numbers than Cedeno (295/.331/.437), but most importantly, he put up better numbers against right-handed pitching, which was Cedeno's strength (.318/.352/.479 to .273/.336/.349). Timo was downright awful against lefties (.156/.206/.188), but Cedeno didn't look much like a starting lineup caliber player against the southpaws either (.231/.275/.340). So if we were to replace Cedeno with Perez in center, we'd still have the issue of who to play against lefties.

Luckily, the Mets found a solution to this problem cheap, in the person of Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Now I probably like Shinjo more than anyone not of Japanese ancestry, and probably more than he deserves, due to a number of clutch hits in his first tour of duty with the Mets in 2001. But, my irrational love for him aside, let's look at the numbers. Last year against lefties, Shinjo hit .291/.328/.491, significantly better than either Cedeno or Perez. And his career numbers vs. lefties (.297/.338/.432) outdo Cedeno's over the same period of time.

I understand that unloading an overpaid, underproducing player like Cedeno in the current market isn't easy, but does that really mean he has to start? Playing Shinjo just because he's got a big contract is a lot like the WWE's frequent attempts to do something with Mark Henry or the Big Show just because they absurdly overspent for their services a few years back. I understand not wanting to pay a guy a huge sum of money to just sit around, but is that really worse than paying him to hamper your team? A Perez/Shinjo platoon would likely be more productive offensively than playing Cedeno every day. Cedeno could be the league's most expensive pinch runner until you figure out a way to get rid of him. That's better than wasting two guys who can do his job better than him. Given that Perez and especially Shinjo are both superior defensively to Cedeno, giving him the centerfield job right now makes no sense.  ¶ joe | 4:57 PM |