Wednesday, January 14, 2004
So it's come to this; Mets sign Garcia
So, aside from all the hubbub and hoopla over his medical records, the Mets' affair with Vladimir Guerrero is over, and so they've turned to what I guess is supposed to be the next best free agent option in right field, former Yankee Karim Garcia.
Last year, Garcia hit .262/.302/.422 in 244 at bats for the Yankees and Indians, which doesn't look too impressive, even next to Roger Cedeno's 2003 numbers (.267/.320/.378 in 484 at bats). Those numbers are skewed a bit by his particularly awful performance with Cleveland and against lefties. Against right handed pitchers, he put up a halfway decent .291/.335/.476 line with 10 home runs in 189 at bats. And he really picked up his play after arriving in New York, hitting .305/.347/.457 in 151 at bats with the Yankees. Presumably the Mets are banking on the 28 year old putting up similar production after the trip across town to Shea. It's worth noting that he put up better numbers on the road than at Yankee Stadium, where he hit just .270/.316/.405 with 3 home runs in 74 at bats. But basically it seems that a slight power advantage was the only significant edge Garcia had over Cedeno last year.
But post-trade surge or not, 2003 was something of a down year for Garcia compared to his recent production. His numbers over the last three years are .281/.312/.511 with 32 home runs in 491 at bats, which looks a bit like one decent season of every day play. If he can come close to matching that over the course of a full season at Shea, we'd probably have to be happy with that. If the Mets can find someone to platoon with the man who hit .297/.327/.528 against righties over the past three years, they might actually have themselves an adequate situation in right field.
Of course, all of this ignores the matter of defense. Anyone who watched a lot of Mets baseball last year would probably conclude that no one could be worse out there than Cedeno was. The only defensive stat I've seen so far on the two was Range Factor, in which Cedeno actually had a 2.36 to 1.84 edge in right field last year. Hopefully some more sophisticated metrics tell a different story, because if Garcia isn't even a defensive upgrade over Cedeno, that's a scary proposition.
I like the length and value of this deal, as it doesn't preclude the Mets from going after an actual good right fielder next year or even via trade during this year should the opportunity present itself. But overall, this deal's not much to get excited about aside from the psychological benefit of not having to look at Roger Cedeno in the outfield. Hopefully Garcia will work out better than previous former Yankees at Shea Stadium.
¶ joe | 8:20 PM |
So, aside from all the hubbub and hoopla over his medical records, the Mets' affair with Vladimir Guerrero is over, and so they've turned to what I guess is supposed to be the next best free agent option in right field, former Yankee Karim Garcia.
Last year, Garcia hit .262/.302/.422 in 244 at bats for the Yankees and Indians, which doesn't look too impressive, even next to Roger Cedeno's 2003 numbers (.267/.320/.378 in 484 at bats). Those numbers are skewed a bit by his particularly awful performance with Cleveland and against lefties. Against right handed pitchers, he put up a halfway decent .291/.335/.476 line with 10 home runs in 189 at bats. And he really picked up his play after arriving in New York, hitting .305/.347/.457 in 151 at bats with the Yankees. Presumably the Mets are banking on the 28 year old putting up similar production after the trip across town to Shea. It's worth noting that he put up better numbers on the road than at Yankee Stadium, where he hit just .270/.316/.405 with 3 home runs in 74 at bats. But basically it seems that a slight power advantage was the only significant edge Garcia had over Cedeno last year.
But post-trade surge or not, 2003 was something of a down year for Garcia compared to his recent production. His numbers over the last three years are .281/.312/.511 with 32 home runs in 491 at bats, which looks a bit like one decent season of every day play. If he can come close to matching that over the course of a full season at Shea, we'd probably have to be happy with that. If the Mets can find someone to platoon with the man who hit .297/.327/.528 against righties over the past three years, they might actually have themselves an adequate situation in right field.
Of course, all of this ignores the matter of defense. Anyone who watched a lot of Mets baseball last year would probably conclude that no one could be worse out there than Cedeno was. The only defensive stat I've seen so far on the two was Range Factor, in which Cedeno actually had a 2.36 to 1.84 edge in right field last year. Hopefully some more sophisticated metrics tell a different story, because if Garcia isn't even a defensive upgrade over Cedeno, that's a scary proposition.
I like the length and value of this deal, as it doesn't preclude the Mets from going after an actual good right fielder next year or even via trade during this year should the opportunity present itself. But overall, this deal's not much to get excited about aside from the psychological benefit of not having to look at Roger Cedeno in the outfield. Hopefully Garcia will work out better than previous former Yankees at Shea Stadium.
¶ joe | 8:20 PM |
