Tuesday, February 24, 2004
Soriano vs. Reyes
Inspired by this thread, I started poking around Baseball Reference looking for guys who played shortstop regularly in the majors at age 20. As was mentioned in the thread, Jose Reyes' 100 OPS+ age 20 season bested those posted by Robin Yount (76 OPS+), Gary Sheffield (82) and Alan Trammell (89) in their 20th year, when all three were stationed at short. It also compared favorably with that of Edgar Renteria, who put up a 104 at age 20 1n 1996 and then didn't best the league average again until 2002. And it wasn't too far from Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan's 113 in 1932. Alex Rodriguez, of course, blew them all away with his monstrous 160 OPS+, the third highest of his career. If I can figure out a way to find everybody who played shortstop regularly at the age of 20 in the major leagues other than just cherry-picking guys I've heard of, I'll post some sort of chart. Hell, even if I just keep cherry-picking, I'll probably post a chart. It won't have any real predictive value, but it is somewhat interesting to look at. (This is all dependent upon me figuring out how to post a halfway-decent chart, which is no sure thing, given the wacky blogger pseudo-html.) Derek Jeter, incidentally, didn't play regularly until he was 22, and even then just barely bested a 1996 AL average OPS of .802 with a 101 OPS+. It wasn't until age 24 that he bested the league OPS by more than 4 percent.
But as I was searching around for 20 year old shortstops, I got the bright idea to check out Alfonso Soriano's numbers. Of course, Soriano didn't play in the majors at age 20. In fact, given the recent revelation about his age, it turns out he was playing for Hiroshima of the Japanese Western League (if I'm making correct assumptions about some abbreviations here) at 20. But his first full major league season came in 2001 at the age of "23" (read: 25) when he hit .268/.304/.432 for an OPS+ of just 92. in 574 at bats. Compare that to Reyes' .307/.334/.434 (admittedly in only 274 at bats) and the kid starts looking all right. For all the shouting done (I'm thinking specifically here of that done by Mike Francesa and Chris Russo this afternoon, but any critic of this non-deal will do) about how Reyes will never be the offensive force that Soriano has become, Reyes looks to be well ahead of Soriano's progression for his age.
If those sample sizes and comparisons aren't enough for you, how about we take a look at an experience the two have in common: playing in the Eastern League. In 1999, a 23 year old Soriano played at four levels, from the Gulf Coast League to the American League, but spent most of his time in the AA Eastern League. In 242 at bats, he posted a .252/.290?/.421 line (I had to calculate the OBP myself without the benefit of HBP or sacrifice numbers, so it's just a rough estimate). At age 19, Jose Reyes basically split 2002 between the Florida State League and the Eastern League. In 274 at bats with AA Binghamton, he hit .287/.331/.425, besting the elder Soriano in all three hitting rate stats, significantly so in average and on-base percentage. There may not be much reason to suspect Reyes will match Soriano's recent production, particularly his power. But then it doesn't seem there was much reason to expect the same production out of Soriano in the first place, so who knows how high Reyes' ceiling could be? I suppose there is no guarantee that Reyes is as young as advertised, but if he is, it seems a 20 year old Reyes is a much more valuable commodity than a 20 year old Soriano was, let alone what a 28 year old Soriano is.
Yes, Mr. Hicks, if it's all the same to you, I'll keep my young shortstop, er, second baseman, thank you. ¶ joe | 2:11 AM |
Inspired by this thread, I started poking around Baseball Reference looking for guys who played shortstop regularly in the majors at age 20. As was mentioned in the thread, Jose Reyes' 100 OPS+ age 20 season bested those posted by Robin Yount (76 OPS+), Gary Sheffield (82) and Alan Trammell (89) in their 20th year, when all three were stationed at short. It also compared favorably with that of Edgar Renteria, who put up a 104 at age 20 1n 1996 and then didn't best the league average again until 2002. And it wasn't too far from Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan's 113 in 1932. Alex Rodriguez, of course, blew them all away with his monstrous 160 OPS+, the third highest of his career. If I can figure out a way to find everybody who played shortstop regularly at the age of 20 in the major leagues other than just cherry-picking guys I've heard of, I'll post some sort of chart. Hell, even if I just keep cherry-picking, I'll probably post a chart. It won't have any real predictive value, but it is somewhat interesting to look at. (This is all dependent upon me figuring out how to post a halfway-decent chart, which is no sure thing, given the wacky blogger pseudo-html.) Derek Jeter, incidentally, didn't play regularly until he was 22, and even then just barely bested a 1996 AL average OPS of .802 with a 101 OPS+. It wasn't until age 24 that he bested the league OPS by more than 4 percent.
But as I was searching around for 20 year old shortstops, I got the bright idea to check out Alfonso Soriano's numbers. Of course, Soriano didn't play in the majors at age 20. In fact, given the recent revelation about his age, it turns out he was playing for Hiroshima of the Japanese Western League (if I'm making correct assumptions about some abbreviations here) at 20. But his first full major league season came in 2001 at the age of "23" (read: 25) when he hit .268/.304/.432 for an OPS+ of just 92. in 574 at bats. Compare that to Reyes' .307/.334/.434 (admittedly in only 274 at bats) and the kid starts looking all right. For all the shouting done (I'm thinking specifically here of that done by Mike Francesa and Chris Russo this afternoon, but any critic of this non-deal will do) about how Reyes will never be the offensive force that Soriano has become, Reyes looks to be well ahead of Soriano's progression for his age.
If those sample sizes and comparisons aren't enough for you, how about we take a look at an experience the two have in common: playing in the Eastern League. In 1999, a 23 year old Soriano played at four levels, from the Gulf Coast League to the American League, but spent most of his time in the AA Eastern League. In 242 at bats, he posted a .252/.290?/.421 line (I had to calculate the OBP myself without the benefit of HBP or sacrifice numbers, so it's just a rough estimate). At age 19, Jose Reyes basically split 2002 between the Florida State League and the Eastern League. In 274 at bats with AA Binghamton, he hit .287/.331/.425, besting the elder Soriano in all three hitting rate stats, significantly so in average and on-base percentage. There may not be much reason to suspect Reyes will match Soriano's recent production, particularly his power. But then it doesn't seem there was much reason to expect the same production out of Soriano in the first place, so who knows how high Reyes' ceiling could be? I suppose there is no guarantee that Reyes is as young as advertised, but if he is, it seems a 20 year old Reyes is a much more valuable commodity than a 20 year old Soriano was, let alone what a 28 year old Soriano is.
Yes, Mr. Hicks, if it's all the same to you, I'll keep my young shortstop, er, second baseman, thank you. ¶ joe | 2:11 AM |
