2004 New York Mets Preview, Part One: The Bats

In 2003, the Mets scored 4.0 runs per game, second worst in the National League. Yes, only the historically inept Los Angeles Dodgers offense scored fewer runs than the Mets, although they scored an entire half of a run per game fewer. In the offseason, the Mets addressed a couple of holes in their lineup, acquiring a great defensive centerfielder and taking the particularly creative approach of filling a hole at second base by signing a shortstop. But overall they avoided making a big splash in the free agent market, leaving a hole in right field unfilled and, for the first time in a long time, depending on the development of current minor leaguers to carry the team into a successful future. This strategy means that looking forward to the next Mets playoff team means looking beyond the team that will step onto the field on opening day. But it also means that the team's window for success will not be as narrow as that of a team comprised mainly of aging veterans. Today I take a look, position by position, at the first step in this evolution, the 2004 New York Mets offense.

C: Mike Piazza

For the purposes of this preview, catcher and first baseman will be treated as two separate positions. I hope, for all of our sakes, that this does not lead to any confusion.

Last year, when Piazza was healthy, he hit .286/.377/.483 in 234 at bats. Those numbers represented a slight increase in his walk rate and a fairly significant drop in his power numbers. The optimistic Met fan would hope that starting some games at first base would prevent fatigue and injury and help him bounce back somewhat, but even if he just stays healthy and hits like, well, like a thirty-five year old catcher, he'll be a valuable and important piece of the lineup. His defense behind the plate will likely continue to be okay in all areas unrelated to throwing, and the ability to station himself at first base against teams that run a lot, like the Marlins, should minimize the impact of his flaws somewhat. It's anyone's guess how he'll play defensively at first, but if he can manage to not embarrass himself out there, it should be a plus for both Piazza and the Mets now and in the years to come.

1B: Jason Phillips

When Mike Piazza went down with his groin injury, Phillips, the most major league-ready catcher in the Mets' organization, got called up and proceeded to play mostly at first base, taking the place of the injured Mo Vaughn and the inconsistent Tony Clark. He then went on to hit .298/.373/.442, besting any on-base percentage he'd ever put up in a full season of minor league ball and generally being the Mets' second most valuable bat, behind Cliff Floyd. Phillips didn't display a whole lot of power (just 11 home runs and 25 doubles in 403 at bats) and his minor league history makes 2003 look like something of a peak season in the area of getting on base. But if he can maintain something resembling last year's production for the next few of what should be his prime years, that, combined with his positional versatility, should make him pretty useful, at least while Justin Huber and Mike Jacobs try to figure out which one of them is going to be the Mets' next catcher. At first base, Phillips' defense wasn't great, but it wasn't bad, and should improve somewhat now that he's got a year of playing the position under his belt. Behind the plate, he'll at least do a better job holding down the running game than Piazza would.

2B: Jose Reyes

The decision to move Reyes to second base has its upside and its downside. Its upside will mostly be contained within the production of the new guy playing short. The downside is an increased risk of injury, a decrease in Reyes' positional value and the chance that Reyes won't be able to play the position. The first of these is the most troubling, especially given how much time he lost to injuries last year, but the last of them seems to be working out all right so far.

Reyes started out last year a nineteen year old shortstop at AAA Norfolk and didn't exactly build on his strong 2002, hitting just .269/.333/.356, which represented a slight increase in his walk rate and a decline in his batting average and power. The Mets promoted him anyway and he improved every month in the majors before injury ended his year early, winding up with a .307/.334/.434 line. He'll need to continue to build upon the improved plate discipline he showed in August, drawing 10 walks in 120 plate appearances, and continue to develop the power that his offseason weight gain portends. But he'll turn just 21 in June and already posted one of the great seasons by a 20 year old shortstop in league history, so there's plenty of reason to be optimistic and excited about his potential in the immediate future and beyond.

3B: Ty Wigginton

By virtue of being one of only two guys in the Mets lineup who stayed healthy long enough to qualify for the batting title, Wigginton wound up leading the team in various offensive categories. He gained some popularity with his hard-nosed attitude, but it didn't have much to do with his production at the plate, where he wasn't a threat to do much more than show up every day. He's 26 years old, so maybe he's got a Phillips-esque breakthrough season in him, but he'll have to improve upon his .255/.318/.396 line if he's going to survive the challenge of David Wright, Victor Diaz and Aaron Baldiris to his spot on the diamond in the coming years.

Given Diaz's big numbers with Binghamton after arriving via the Jeromy Burnitz trade (.354/.382/.520 in 175 at bats) and the fact that the Mets have been trying him out at third base in spring training, I have to wonder if they're considering not waiting until Wright is ready to give Wigginton some competition at the hot corner. Diaz doesn't seem to be much more useful with the glove at third than he has been at second (i.e., not very), and it seems like the Mets should just accept his destiny as a future corner outfielder. Maybe they're trying to see if he can handle a couple of infield positions well enough to bolster a bench long on outfielders, short on infielders and even shorter on useful bats. I would think he'd have more utility as someone to plug in either the continued black hole in right field or the one that'll open up in left the next time Cliff Floyd goes down due to injury.

Wigginton's defense wasn't bad for a guy just learning the position, but he didn't have a lot of range. He's another who should be more comfortable and effective after a year on the job.

SS: Kazuo Matsui

Predicting Matsui's offensive production based on what he's done in Japan is a tough task. Last year he hit .305/.368/.549 for the Seibu Lions of the Japanese Pacific League and the year before that .332/.391/.617. But witnessing Hideki Matsui's amazing disappearing home runs last year has made everyone wary of expecting Kaz to pop many balls over the wall. But there's reason to believe he'll at least hit for a decent average, draw a few walks and rack up some doubles and his defense is already garnering rave reviews in spring training.

The Mets have been talking like they're trying to replicate the top of the Marlins' World Championship lineup with Matsui and Reyes playing the roles of Pierre and Castillo. The Mets' duo don't seem likely to match the OBP those two put up last year, at least in the short term, and neither seems likely to run as much as Pierre. But Castillo wasn't of much use on the basepaths, getting caught almost half the time when trying to steal. And I would put money on Matsui and Reyes' power numbers besting those of the Champs' table-setters.

LF: Cliff Floyd

As always, the story with Floyd was that he was an asset as long as he was healthy, which was not as long as you would like. He hit .290/.376/.518 in 365 at bats before finally giving in to the Achilles problem he'd been fighting almost all year. It almost goes without saying, but the health of Floyd and Piazza will go a long way toward determining how far the Mets go this year. His defense wasn't much good, what with the inability to run full speed and all, and will probably continue to be sub par.

CF: Mike Cameron

Cameron was the Mets' other big signing of the offseason, and one less fraught with uncertainty than the shortstop from Japan. The Mets got pitiful offense and defense out of their outfield much of the time in 2003 as the guys who could play defense couldn't hit well enough to stay in the majors and the guys who could hit couldn't be kept on the field for the whole season, for one reason or another. And of course there was Roger Cedeno whose primary talent at this point appears to be "drawing salary." Cameron is the top, or at least one of the top few, defensive centerfielders in all of baseball, depending on which defensive metric you look at, and should provide a nice boost to both his fellow outfielders and the pitching staff by getting a glove on anything hit anywhere near him, while providing a good deal more offense than the Mets could have gotten out of part-time defensive wizards like Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Jeff Duncan.

When Cameron was first signed, I was slightly less than enthusiastic mostly due to the fact that he wasn't the huge offensive upgrade that I thought the Mets needed. And while it's true that he's not even going to provide the sort of power that the Mets surprisingly got out of sometime centerfielder Jeromy Burnitz for half of a season last year, it seems that Safeco Field really did depress Cameron's offensive production over the last few years, even more than Shea Stadium will this year. While Cameron's slugging percentage has declined slightly two years in a row after something of a power spike in 2001 (30 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs), he's still got a decent amount of power, especially away from Safeco, and he's consistently posted quality on-base percentages, particularly when adjusted for his park and league. He's also managed to stay in the lineup for upwards of 500 at bats on a yearly basis. It seems that all signs point to Cameron providing above-average offense out of the centerfield position to go along with his top-notch defense. As the kids say, my bad.

RF: Karim Garcia, I guess

Last year the Mets got just about nothing out of right field, with Roger ".267/.320/.378" Cedeno being the position's most common occupant. They entered this offseason having decided that, enormous contract or not, Cedeno was not the rightfielder for this team going forward. After deciding against taking any chances with Vladimir Guerrero's back, they wound up with precious few options and settled on the bullpen brawler. For all the talk about Cedeno's allegedly awful defense, there isn't much statistical evidence to support the idea that Garcia is any better with the leather. At the plate he'll provide more power than Cedeno and not much else. He certainly wouldn't be an impediment in the path of any young outfielder who might catch fire and earn a major league job. But for this year, Garcia should earn enough money to cover his various legal bills and then get out of the way so the Mets can pursue a better option in the offseason.

Garcia may wind up being platooned with fellow Yankee outcast Shane Spencer who will probably do a similar job of looking like a decent offensive option when standing next to Roger Cedeno.

Bench: Roger Cedeno, Joe McEwing, Todd Zeile, Timo Perez and a cast of thousands

This bench, regardless of what minor leaguers wind up filling it out as the season progresses, looks positively punchless, lacking anyone even likely to match Tony Clark's minor positive contributions of a year ago. But last year saw players intended to fill the role of reserves called into every day service on numerous occasions with fairly disastrous results. Because of ineffectiveness and time lost to injury from nominal starters like Piazza, Cedeno, Floyd and Mo Vaughn, and the less than smooth transition to the current youth movement, players like Clark, McEwing, Perez, Duncan, Shinjo, Jay Bell, Raul Gonzalez and Vance Wilson saw significant playing time. All of these players, with the exception of Clark and Wilson, and along with temporary starting shortstop Rey Sanchez, performed below replacement level. While Cedeno, McEwing, Zeile and Perez are not good bets to do much better this year, full seasons from Floyd, Piazza, Reyes and Phillips, as well as the additions of Cameron and Matsui, would decrease the team's dependence on its lackluster reserve talent. While certain of these conditions, namely full, healthy seasons from Floyd and Piazza, are far from sure things, the Mets can also expect to get slightly less awful reinforcements from a minor league system featuring more developed options like Diaz, Craig Brazell and Daniel Garcia, who struggled in a brief cameo in New York last year. The bench figures to be a weakness for the Mets again this year, but due to some addition by subtraction, it may not be such a crippling liability as it was a year ago.

Once again the burden of the Mets' offensive health rests largely on the shoulders of two aging and increasingly fragile stars, Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd. The team has begun to surround them with a more solid supporting cast, but the lineup still features at least one gaping hole and a couple of placeholders for promising prospects who are unlikely to be ready to help this year. If Floyd can provide an uncharacteristically healthy year and Piazza's move to first base can manage to keep him in the lineup for the majority of the year, the team's offense should be much improved. Still, that is doubtful to be enough to carry this team to the playoffs. Floyd and Piazza will need to hang on for at least another year until the organization's core of promising youngsters begins to produce the major league talent that will constitute the Mets' next playoff-caliber lineup alongside whatever free agent or trade bait Jim Duquette is able to find who can both hit and play right field. Whether they'll stick around and maintain their effectiveness long enough is anyone's guess, but one thing is for sure. The Mets are building a future that looks bright whether they're still around to be part of it or not.

Coming soon to an internet browser near you, Part Two: The Arms!  ¶ joe | 1:55 AM |