Monday, March 01, 2004
Kazmir for Soriano?
I told you last time. No!
Seriously, I think this trade may be even less palatable than the previously rumored deal involving Jose Reyes. Kazmir's value is even more tied up in potential than Reyes', but that potential, particularly with Rick Peterson on board, is for a career as the dominant ace the Mets sorely need. New York fans may not have gotten the chance to get attached to Kazmir the way they have to Reyes, but I think losing him may be an even bigger blow to the organization than losing Reyes.
But even putting aside arguments about Kazmir's potential, Alfonso Soriano the right fielder just wouldn't be as valuable as Alfonso Soriano the second baseman. In 2003, Soriano's Equivalent Average (EQA) of .296 ranked third among all major league second basemen, behind Bret Boone and Marcus Giles, and his OPS of .863 ranked fourth, behind Boone, Giles and Jose Vidro. That kind of production out of the second base spot would be a huge plus for any team. But if you stack his numbers up against major league right fielders last year, he only comes in tenth in both statistics. That would certainly be a big upgrade over what the Mets had in right last year or are likely to have this year, but not so much as to be worth giving up the crown jewel of the farm system, in my opinion.
I'm still not opposed to the Mets acquiring Soriano to play right field, if he's willing to make the switch, and it is rumored that he is. But they shouldn't make the trade thinking they're getting an elite offensive player and compensating the Rangers accordingly. If Soriano winds up patrolling right field at Shea Stadium, he shouldn't be expected to be much more than a top-third major league right fielder.
In other news, check out this excellent article from the New York Times about Mike Cameron and his defense. Not only is it another example of advanced metrics like UZR popping up in mainstream media, but it's an insightful look at how Cameron does what he does out in center field. ¶ joe | 12:57 AM |
I told you last time. No!
Seriously, I think this trade may be even less palatable than the previously rumored deal involving Jose Reyes. Kazmir's value is even more tied up in potential than Reyes', but that potential, particularly with Rick Peterson on board, is for a career as the dominant ace the Mets sorely need. New York fans may not have gotten the chance to get attached to Kazmir the way they have to Reyes, but I think losing him may be an even bigger blow to the organization than losing Reyes.
But even putting aside arguments about Kazmir's potential, Alfonso Soriano the right fielder just wouldn't be as valuable as Alfonso Soriano the second baseman. In 2003, Soriano's Equivalent Average (EQA) of .296 ranked third among all major league second basemen, behind Bret Boone and Marcus Giles, and his OPS of .863 ranked fourth, behind Boone, Giles and Jose Vidro. That kind of production out of the second base spot would be a huge plus for any team. But if you stack his numbers up against major league right fielders last year, he only comes in tenth in both statistics. That would certainly be a big upgrade over what the Mets had in right last year or are likely to have this year, but not so much as to be worth giving up the crown jewel of the farm system, in my opinion.
I'm still not opposed to the Mets acquiring Soriano to play right field, if he's willing to make the switch, and it is rumored that he is. But they shouldn't make the trade thinking they're getting an elite offensive player and compensating the Rangers accordingly. If Soriano winds up patrolling right field at Shea Stadium, he shouldn't be expected to be much more than a top-third major league right fielder.
In other news, check out this excellent article from the New York Times about Mike Cameron and his defense. Not only is it another example of advanced metrics like UZR popping up in mainstream media, but it's an insightful look at how Cameron does what he does out in center field. ¶ joe | 12:57 AM |
