Thursday, December 16, 2004
Destination Moon
As you might have heard, the Mets have, pending a physical that's something less than a slam dunk, acquired Pedro Martinez, formerly of your World Champion Boston Red Sox. This news has some Met fans celebrating and other decrying the "same old Mets." But this move isn't quite a coup or a disaster. The Mets will be paying a whole lot of money over the next four years to a guy who will very likely be one of the best pitchers in the league so long as his right arm remains attached to his torso. That that last part is somewhat less certain for him than for your average thirty-three year old pitcher is where things get tricky.
The numbers Pedro can produce when healthy speak for themselves and provide plenty of reason to be excited about his donning a New York Mets uniform. His unusually high ERA in 2004 looks a bit like cause for concern, but even given his age and the endless stories about the condition of his shoulder, it's a bit early to portray one year as evidence of a trend. His 2004 ERA ballooned in part due to a few extremely bad performances and a home run rate so high and out of line with his career performance as to seem like a fluke. Pedro's never again going to dominate like he did in 1999, but given his history of great performance and the transition to a league and a park more friendly to pitchers than the one he's leaving, it's reasonable to expect him to improve on his 2004 ERA once he puts on the blue and orange and (ugh) black.
Of course, the Mets finished 2004 in fourth place in the National League East due in large part to one of the league's most inept offenses, a condition which the team has yet to address. Given this, spending a significant chunk of cash on an ace pitcher doesn't seem like the first move the Mets should be making. But given the room the Mets have opened up in their payroll, ownership's apparent willingness to be flexible in the right circumstance and Omar Minaya's continued aggressiveness in pursuit of bats both wise and unwise, we shouldn't expect that the Mets are done putting together this team.
After the disastrous last few years, many have clamored for a true rebuilding effort and a serious attempt at the "youth movement" to which the team has occasionally paid lip service in the last couple of years. But given the way things spiraled out of control on one dark Friday afternoon in July, the team is left in a position where they're not positioned nearly as well to build from within as they once were. At this point, the Mets don't have but a piece or two of a future good team on the way up through the farm system, with only Yusmeiro Petit and Lastings Milledge remaining as serious potential impact players performing in the minor leagues. To fill all of the holes at the major league level from within would take at least a couple of drafts going pretty well. And while impatience has killed the Mets time and time again, right now the team has holes to fill and there are players on the free agent market who can fill them without blocking any prospects already making their way up through the organization. If the choice is between signing Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and JD Drew to fill the team's glaring holes and not filling them at all, I don't think the decision is too tough.
If the Mets don't acquire a serious first baseman and rightfielder this offseason they won't have one in 2005 or be any closer to having one in 2006. There are plenty of ways for Minaya to screw this up (hello Moises Alou!) and we certainly shouldn't give him credit for doing things until he's done them, but there are available free agents who, in concert with each other, would be good signings and go a long way toward making this a good team. Pedro Martinez alone doesn't make much of a dent in the Mets' difficulties, but until Minaya fails to address the team's other areas of concern, we can't fault this signing for not being enough.
Certainly a four-year contract is more of a risk than anyone should be willing to take on Pedro Martinez given the apparent condition of his shoulder. But if the Mets didn't have Pedro, they'd have in 2005 and 2006 what they had in 2004--a rotation full of third starters. And if the team isn't ready to replace Pedro as the ace with someone younger by 2007, then what shape would they be in if they hadn't signed him? Of course it's impossible to predict what moves the Mets might be able to make in the next offseason or the one after that, but I fail to see what other, smarter move this one will prevent the team from making. If Pedro's arm falls off in June of next year, this will look like a horrible deal, but portraying that as a likely outcome seems quite pessimistic to me. Before this signing the Mets had several positions from which you might have expected "good" or "above average" production and perhaps one—third base—where you might have expected more. Now the Mets have a player from whom a legitimately great season wouldn't be a shock. Add a couple more of those and they just might have something. ¶ joe | 1:10 AM |
As you might have heard, the Mets have, pending a physical that's something less than a slam dunk, acquired Pedro Martinez, formerly of your World Champion Boston Red Sox. This news has some Met fans celebrating and other decrying the "same old Mets." But this move isn't quite a coup or a disaster. The Mets will be paying a whole lot of money over the next four years to a guy who will very likely be one of the best pitchers in the league so long as his right arm remains attached to his torso. That that last part is somewhat less certain for him than for your average thirty-three year old pitcher is where things get tricky.
The numbers Pedro can produce when healthy speak for themselves and provide plenty of reason to be excited about his donning a New York Mets uniform. His unusually high ERA in 2004 looks a bit like cause for concern, but even given his age and the endless stories about the condition of his shoulder, it's a bit early to portray one year as evidence of a trend. His 2004 ERA ballooned in part due to a few extremely bad performances and a home run rate so high and out of line with his career performance as to seem like a fluke. Pedro's never again going to dominate like he did in 1999, but given his history of great performance and the transition to a league and a park more friendly to pitchers than the one he's leaving, it's reasonable to expect him to improve on his 2004 ERA once he puts on the blue and orange and (ugh) black.
Of course, the Mets finished 2004 in fourth place in the National League East due in large part to one of the league's most inept offenses, a condition which the team has yet to address. Given this, spending a significant chunk of cash on an ace pitcher doesn't seem like the first move the Mets should be making. But given the room the Mets have opened up in their payroll, ownership's apparent willingness to be flexible in the right circumstance and Omar Minaya's continued aggressiveness in pursuit of bats both wise and unwise, we shouldn't expect that the Mets are done putting together this team.
After the disastrous last few years, many have clamored for a true rebuilding effort and a serious attempt at the "youth movement" to which the team has occasionally paid lip service in the last couple of years. But given the way things spiraled out of control on one dark Friday afternoon in July, the team is left in a position where they're not positioned nearly as well to build from within as they once were. At this point, the Mets don't have but a piece or two of a future good team on the way up through the farm system, with only Yusmeiro Petit and Lastings Milledge remaining as serious potential impact players performing in the minor leagues. To fill all of the holes at the major league level from within would take at least a couple of drafts going pretty well. And while impatience has killed the Mets time and time again, right now the team has holes to fill and there are players on the free agent market who can fill them without blocking any prospects already making their way up through the organization. If the choice is between signing Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and JD Drew to fill the team's glaring holes and not filling them at all, I don't think the decision is too tough.
If the Mets don't acquire a serious first baseman and rightfielder this offseason they won't have one in 2005 or be any closer to having one in 2006. There are plenty of ways for Minaya to screw this up (hello Moises Alou!) and we certainly shouldn't give him credit for doing things until he's done them, but there are available free agents who, in concert with each other, would be good signings and go a long way toward making this a good team. Pedro Martinez alone doesn't make much of a dent in the Mets' difficulties, but until Minaya fails to address the team's other areas of concern, we can't fault this signing for not being enough.
Certainly a four-year contract is more of a risk than anyone should be willing to take on Pedro Martinez given the apparent condition of his shoulder. But if the Mets didn't have Pedro, they'd have in 2005 and 2006 what they had in 2004--a rotation full of third starters. And if the team isn't ready to replace Pedro as the ace with someone younger by 2007, then what shape would they be in if they hadn't signed him? Of course it's impossible to predict what moves the Mets might be able to make in the next offseason or the one after that, but I fail to see what other, smarter move this one will prevent the team from making. If Pedro's arm falls off in June of next year, this will look like a horrible deal, but portraying that as a likely outcome seems quite pessimistic to me. Before this signing the Mets had several positions from which you might have expected "good" or "above average" production and perhaps one—third base—where you might have expected more. Now the Mets have a player from whom a legitimately great season wouldn't be a shock. Add a couple more of those and they just might have something. ¶ joe | 1:10 AM |
