New York Mets 2005 Season Preview Part One: Swing Is A Word

In 2004 the Mets' offense was hit hard by injuries and also suffered through disappointing seasons from a couple of newcomers. This led to their putting 684 runs on the board, good for twelfth in the National League. On the bright side, both of those numbers were actually improvements over the team's 2003 performance. In the offseason, General Manager Omar Minaya added one huge piece to the offense and missed out on adding one more. Still, that one addition combined with the year-long presence of some youngsters and rebound years from some not-so-youngsters could result in a big improvement on the scoreboard. Let's go position by position.

Catcher: Mike Piazza

First base is hard. Don't let memories of Keith Hernandez and John Olerud fool you. Last year, the Mets had Mike Piazza play first base some of the time in order to keep him healthy and keep his bat in the lineup. Aside from the fact that his defense was really bad, he also only played in 129 games. Oh, and in his 240 at bats as a first baseman, he hit .229/.324/.383. For comparison's sake, Wilson Delgado hit .292/.366/.385 for the Mets last year. Yes, 2004 was a tough year for Mike Piazza and the Mets and now it's back behind the plate with him.

Mike Piazza the catcher hit .331/.419/.552 in 181 at bats last year. It's hard to explain why he was so much more effective when playing the theoretically more physically demanding position and even harder to believe that he'll hit like that again, but I think it's reasonable to expect a bat more potent than that belonging to Mike Piazza the first baseman to show up this year.

Of course, given that Piazza has only played in 197 games over the last two years and is now thirty-six years old, counting on him to regularly show up is something of a dubious proposition. The Mets have three players scheduled to be in their starting lineup whose health are both legitimately questionable and of significant importance. Piazza is perhaps the least likely to play a full season and also the least likely to be replaced adequately. The Mets don't need Piazza to slug .600 again, but they do need him to stay on the field if this offense is going to take a serious step forward from last year's production.

First Baseman: Doug Mientkiewicz

In 2004, the average National League first baseman hit .280/.364/.485. The average New York Mets first baseman hit .237/.326/.368. So the team entered this offseason with some obvious potential to upgrade the team's offense. And if they'd managed to land Carlos Delgado, I'd probably have a lot of confidence in this position and the offense as a whole, at least for this year. But instead they wound up with reputed defense wizard and spellcheck confounder Doug Mientkiewicz, who hit .236/.363/.350 last year in his worst offensive showing since his rookie year of 1999.

At age 30, it's hard to believe Mientkiewicz's offensive game has already collapsed, so he'll probably bounce back some toward the patient if not powerful hitter he was between 2001 and 2003. And while the Mets' offense out of first base was pathetic last year, the various defenders employed at the position were a comparable horror show. So the runs Mientkiewicz saves with his glove figure to at least put a dent in the team's problems at this position, if not one comparable to that Delgado could have provided. The production from this position should be improved from last year, but still doesn't figure to be an overall plus in comparison to the league.

Second Baseman: Kazuo Matsui

While Kazuo Matsui's offense and defense were disappointing Met fans in Flushing, another Matsui across town was reminding everyone not to put so much stock in first impressions. RBI aside, Hideki didn't have a great offensive season in his Major League debut in 2003, hitting just .287/.353/.435 while playing one of the most offensive positions on the field. But in 2004, presumably after having gotten more comfortable and adjusting to MLB a bit, he came back with a .298/.390/.522 season. His defense also allegedly went from solid to scary, but I don't really have numbers to support that.

Kazuo hit just .272/.331/.396, a far cry from the power numbers he put up in Japan, but enough to rank him somewhere in the middle for offensive production among major league shortstops. And he did hit .336/.384/.500 in his last full, healthy month, so maybe he started to figure things out a bit. Unfortunately, that last month was July, as injury problems cropped up for the man who had played 1143 consecutive games before leaving Japan. And he's had some minor back problems in Spring Training this year as well. I don't think injuries are as major a concern with Matsui as with some other Met starters, but it is something to be wary of.

But if he manages to stay on the field, I don't think there's much doubt that he'll be more valuable this year than he was last. His much overhyped defense shouldn't be as much of a problem at second as it was at shortstop, as the position change will mitigate the effect of his weak throwing arm somewhat. And as with his offense, having had a year to adjust to the grass fields of America should have at least some positive consequences. Second base was another weak position for the Mets in 2004, though at .261/.312/.381, they did outhit the first baseman. With Matsui presumably there to stay, he should be able to outperform last year's ineffective rotating cast.

Third Base: David Wright

In 43 years, 129 men have played third base for the Mets. No one played there more than Howard Johnson (835 games) and no player drafted by the Mets played there more than Hubie Brooks (516 games). After David Wright's ridiculous 2004, it doesn't seem like enough to speculate on what he'll do in 2005. No, with all the disappointment Met fans have had to endure over the years, at third base and elsewhere, it's almost too tempting to see this nice guy with the huge numbers and start reserving his spot on the Mets all-time team. But just looking forward to his 2005, there's reason enough to be excited.

Wright started out last year by destroying the Eastern League (.363/.467/.619) to earn a promotion to Norfolk, where he basically kept on doing what he was doing (.298/.388/.579). After he was promoted in July, the 21 year old didn't have too much trouble adjusting to the majors, hitting .293/.332/.525 through 323 at bats. Sure, his walk rate fell off somewhat, but it was still a big year for the rookie and an upgrade over even a surprisingly productive Ty Wigginton, who hit .285/.334/.487 before being traded to the Pirates.

Wright had some trouble defensively, committing 11 errors in 69 games, out of line with the reputation he'd developed in the minors. It's hard to say what to expect from him this year in that regard, but I think it's safe to say he'll at least be solid. But his bat will be key for the Mets. Despite Willie Randolph's speculation that he might bat Wright as low as eighth early in the season, he's very likely to emerge as one of the team's top two or three hitters and cement himself at the hot corner for years to come. This position should be as much of a plus for the Mets as it's been in years. If Wright can display enough of the power he showed last year to start drawing a few more walks again, all the better.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes

Here we have the second major health concern for the 2005 Mets. Reyes was rushed to the majors in 2003 and responded with a promising half season anyway. But he got hurt before the end of that season and leg problems followed him all though 2004, contributing to a very disappointing .255/.271/.373 line in 220 at bats. Reyes' injury problems are a lot more disturbing than Piazza's because he's not a thirty-six year old catcher. He's a twenty-one year old shortstop who can't stay on the field. The success of this Mets team in the coming years is going to depend in part on Reyes' ability to stay healthy, and unlike Wright, pencilling him into the lineup for the next eight to ten years seems a bit too optimistic at this point.

Of course, health aside, there's also the question of whether or not he can play the game. He hasn't played more than 69 games at the same level in one season since he was eighteen years old, so we've only really gotten brief glimpses of his ability as he rocketed up through the organization. So what do we know? Well, he's FAST. His 32/37 stolen base success rate in the majors is evidence enough, but there's few things more fun to watch than Reyes legging out a standup triple and turning the corner as if to go home, as he did in a Spring Training game last weekend. Also, he's got a little power. He's never hit more than eight home runs in a professional season, but still, he's shown flashes of pop and could certainly add some more as he matures. But perhaps most importantly, his plate discipline could use some work. In his rookie year, he seemed to get more patient as the year went on, improving his walk rate througout the year until he drew 10 in 110 at bats in August. But last year he fell off in a big way, drawing just five all year. And he hasn't shown much improvement this spring either, for whatever that's worth.

Jose Reyes can still be a very important player for the New York Mets. His development was severely sidetracked last year, and not because of the move to second base. But he still won't turn 22 until June, so he's got a little time to get going back in the right direction. His development as a hitter is probably the most important factor for the Mets' chances at winning this year, but his development as a person who can run from first to third without pulling something is the real key for the Mets' long-term aspirations.

Left Fielder: Cliff Floyd

And here is our third serious injury concern for the offense. Floyd played just 113 games last year and that was actually an improvement on the 108 game he'd played the year. He's making all the right noises in Spring Training about being healthier than he's been in years and wanting to steal 25 bases, but he's certainly not someone the Mets can count on to be in the lineup 150 times this year. But of at least as much concern as his health is his decline in production last year, as he dropped down to .260/.352/.462 from a solid .290/.376/.518 the year before, due in large part to a newfound inability to hit lefties. Floyd managed just .239/.296/.336, and while those 113 at bats aren't the kind of sample you'd like to base a projection on, they certainly don't inspire confidence going forward.

If Floyd can hit like he did prior to 2004, somewhere around .370/.500, he can be one of the best two or three hitters in the lineup as long as he's in it. Expecting him to bounce back a little bit isn't out of line, as he at least doesn't seem to be playing with any serious injuries yet. Still, Floyd's one of the guys, along with Piazza and Reyes, who'll need to do a little more than just what can reasonably be expected for this team to field a championship caliber offense this year. I think he's be the most likely of the three to have a big year as far as rate stats, but I can't really say the same about his prospects for staying healthy. At least the Mets have a tolerable backup plan this year.

Center Fielder: Carlos Beltran

The fun thing about the internet is that you can't tell when I'm giggling to myself or doing a little dance. Omar Minaya's masterstroke this offseason was locking up the not-quite-twenty-eight-year-old Beltran for seven years. Sure, he got a little lucky in that the Yankees decided they'd rather reward Jaret Wright, Tony Womack and Carl Pavano handsomely for having career years than sign Beltran at a reduced rate, but still, he is a Met and will remain so for years to come. Having David Wright around is great and all, but Beltran is the real reason to unbridle your enthusiasm for the future of this team. Some members of the mainstream media like to point out that Beltran's batting average fell 40 points last year, all the way to .267, in arguing that he's not all he's cracked up to be. Of course, he also set career highs in home runs (38), walks (92), stolen bases (42) and slugging percentage (.548). And unlike the aforementioned new Yankees, there's reason to believe he can keep it up.

Sure, he's moving from a couple of good hitters parks in Kansas City and Houston to pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium. But he didn't really take much advantage of those parks last year, hitting .225/.316/.458 at home as compared to .305/.412/.629 on the road. His splits over the past three years reveal a similar, if less dramatic, differential (.862 OPS at home, .915 on the road). It's hard to satisfactorily explain this or determine what if any relevance it might have to his future in Flushing, but at least it should ally concerns that he was just a product of friendly parks. His power numbers will likely come down a bit, but his batting average will probably also rebound somewhat, leaving him at worst the second most productive center fielder in the league behind thirty-five year old Jim Edmonds.

And none of this accounts for his defense, very good by all accounts and reputable metrics. Maybe not so good as to make the Mets' current outfield configuration the ideal one, but good enough that it shouldn't matter too much. The Mets have done a lot to upgrade the defense this year, from the middle infield switcheroo to the acquisition of Mientkiewicz, and bringing in Beltran is another big step in that direction. He is essentially replacing the Mets' right fielders from 2004, and for half of the year the team had the very good Richard Hidalgo out there. But for the other half they had people like the less than very good Karim Garcia and Shane Spencer, who was just slow enough to make some slightly tough catches into exciting diving catches. All things considered Beltran might not represent a huge step forward from last year in terms of runs saved, but he does solidify the defense at an important position for years to come.

And of course, he's an excellent baserunner. As you may have heard, he has the greatest stolen base percentage in the history of Major League Baseball keeping track of that stat. Also, the Mets had a historically great success rate of 82.3% last year. All of the key contributors to that success are back this year, and with Beltran added to the mix, I see no reason why the team can't continue to use the stolen base as an effective offensive weapon. You know, like everyone thinks the Marlins do. Willie Randolph's promises of aggressive baserunner this offseason have bordered on excessive, but if there's a team to run wild with, this may be it.

Right Fielder: Mike Cameron

Despite a team-high 30 home runs, Cameron's offense was somewhat of a disappointment last year. His power and patience weren't quite enough to make up for his poor batting average, resulting in a final line of .231/.319/.479. He was bothered by an injured wrist for most if not all of last year, so improved health might allow him to make a little more contact this year, though his prodigious strikeout totals figure to persist. In total, his offensive numbers will likely look less than stellar for a right fielder, but with Beltran in center, the team's outfield should add up to a very good offense overall. And right field was another weak position for the Mets in 2004, with no one who played there for any significant amount of time managing even an .800 OPS, so Cameron should at least be able to serve as a modest upgrade.

Defensively, it seems like he should easily move over and be a huge plus. But he has had some trouble tracking balls early in Spring Training. I have no doubt that he'll be able to adjust and be very good in the long run, but there may be some growing pains. Still, he and Beltran should cover two-thirds of the outfield very well this season.

Bench: Ramon Castro, Miguel Cairo, Chris Woodward, Kerry Robinson, Eric Valent, Marlon Anderson, Ron Calloway

Not all of those guys will make the opening day roster, but five of them probably will, with Castro and Cairo the surest bets. The best reserve the Mets have will certainly not be on the opening day roster, as he'll be playing every day in Norfolk, but when Cliff Floyd hits the DL, Victor Diaz will make for a very solid replacement. He's the only one of the Mets' backup bunch with real aspirations toward starting every day in the future. The twenty-three year old outfielder hit .294/.321/.529 in a brief cameo in Flushing last year after a solid .292/.332/.491 year in AAA. He's got some work to do on his discipline and his defense, but he shown good power throughout his minor league career and should continue to do so in the big leagues.

Cairo had a career year with the Yankees last year, hitting .292/.346/.417, well above his lifetime averages. He should regress somewhat and still be a decent backup. Better than the recently departed Joe McEwing, at least. Castro had a couple of big minor league seasons four and five years ago, but hasn't ever put together much of a major league resume, hitting .212/.296/.365 for his career. He'll need to relive his salad days in Calgary to be of much use subbing for Piazza. Valent had a good year for the Mets last year, hitting .267/.337/.481 after stagnating in the Phillies' minor league system the two previous years. He probably won't put up those numbers again, but he should again be a solid bat off of the bench. The rest of this group is pretty forgettable, but the bench should still be less dreadful than as in the past two years, with more than one competent hitter available to step in in case of injury.

Summary

Overall, the Mets offense is much improved. Every position aside from catcher and left field could provide an offensive upgrade over 2004 without shocking me, and the guys at C and LF aren't exactly going to drag the offense into the mud as long as they're in the lineup. Willie Randolph's making some curious lineup decision early in the year, planning to bat David Wright eighth with Reyes and Matsui, both less likely than Wright to get on base, at the top of the lineup. I think this will sort itself out before too long if Wright hits like I expect he will, but it is still unfortunate.

Almost everyone in this lineup could be described as either "too young" or "too old", with only Beltran and Matsui in their theoretical primes. Still, with Wright already proving capable of handling major league pitching and none of the older guys in serious danger of falling off a cliff, I think all of the improvements could add up to as many as 800 runs scored for the Mets this year. With some unusual luck in regard to injuries, this lineup could be downright threatening, but right now I'll just predict an above-average run-scoring apparatus.  ¶ joe | 7:32 PM |