Thursday, March 17, 2005
We're The Replacements
Steve Trachsel will need surgery to address the hernaited disk in his back. And he's likely enough to miss the entire season that he felt the need to guarantee otherwise. So let's take a slightly deeper look at the most likely candidates to replace the Mets' Mr. Reliable, starting with former first round pick Aaron Heilman.
Heilman's major league performance thus far in his career certainly fails to inspire confidence. Hell, even saying he's mastered AAA is a bit of stretch at this point. His major league debut in 2003 was a disaster that no one predicted, and it looks as though he hasn't yet recovered from it, whether emotional or mechanical problems are to blame. At twenty-six years old, it's hard to believe that Heilman will ever be the succesful major leaguer he was once projected to be. He would probably best be served by some more time in the minor leagues to try to fix whatever went wrong in 2003. So far he's been awful in Spring Training, so he's not likely to sneak his way onto the major league roster that way either. So let's move on to a slightly more likely candidate for the major league rotation, Jae Seo.
Seo seemed to come out of nowhere with his terrific 2003, as he was especially impressive in the first half of the season before beginning to regress toward presumably his true talent level. He was twenty-six at the time, so there wasn't much reason to expect further development, but with his good command he seemed like a reasonable bet to be a solid contributor to the Mets' rotation for the next couple of years. Then Rick Peterson came to town. Seo and Peterson never seemed to see eye to eye and as a result, last year, when the back end of the Mets' rotation needed all the help it could get, Seo was continually jerked around by Peterson and manager Art Howe, seemingly never secure in his spot in the rotation. He even pitched in relief three times. The team doesn't seem to have much more confidence in him this year than it did last and he's done little to engender it with his Spring Training performance. I still think Seo has the talent to be a suitable back-of-the-rotation starter, but at this point it's hard to see it happening with this organization. So that brings us to the last man standing, Matt Ginter.
(CHA is Chicago's AAA affiliate in Charlotte.) With that performance record, it's hard to see what puts Ginter ahead of Seo on the the Mets' depth chart, but there he sits. Success in brief Spring Training action has no doubt helped his case. The fact that I'm not presenting Spring Training stats here is due as much to my inability to find them quickly as my disinclination to dignify such meaningless numbers. While, as I mentioned yesterday, there's reason to believe that Ginter could post a similar ERA to what Trachsel might have done this year, the likelihood of his matching Trachsel's recent durability is much slimmer. While Trachsel topped 200 innings each of the last year, Ginter hadn't even started a game since 2001 prior to last year. If the twenty-seven year old Ginter can stick around until Trachsel gets back, the fifth spot in the Mets' rotation probably won't be the disaster area that it was each of the last two years. And if the team's shot at contention hinged on the health of Steve Trachsel, it must not have been too secure to begin with. But this injury is one more thing that may lead the team's rotation to underperform the lofty expectations that some seem to have for it. I'm pretty confident about the top spot in the rotation. After that, I think they're going to need some luck. ¶ joe | 9:41 AM |
Steve Trachsel will need surgery to address the hernaited disk in his back. And he's likely enough to miss the entire season that he felt the need to guarantee otherwise. So let's take a slightly deeper look at the most likely candidates to replace the Mets' Mr. Reliable, starting with former first round pick Aaron Heilman.
YEAR TEAM IP K BB H HR ERA
2002 BIN 96.2 97 28 85 7 3.82
NOR 49.1 35 16 42 3 3.28
2003 NOR 94.1 71 32 99 5 3.24
NYM 65.1 51 41 79 13 6.75
2004 NOR 151.2 123 66 156 15 4.33
NYM 28.0 22 13 27 4 5.46
Heilman's major league performance thus far in his career certainly fails to inspire confidence. Hell, even saying he's mastered AAA is a bit of stretch at this point. His major league debut in 2003 was a disaster that no one predicted, and it looks as though he hasn't yet recovered from it, whether emotional or mechanical problems are to blame. At twenty-six years old, it's hard to believe that Heilman will ever be the succesful major leaguer he was once projected to be. He would probably best be served by some more time in the minor leagues to try to fix whatever went wrong in 2003. So far he's been awful in Spring Training, so he's not likely to sneak his way onto the major league roster that way either. So let's move on to a slightly more likely candidate for the major league rotation, Jae Seo.
YEAR TEAM IP K BB H HR ERA
2002 BIN 5.0 6 1 5 1 5.40
NOR 128.2 87 22 145 14 3.99
NYM 1.0 1 0 0 0 0.00
2003 NYM 188.1 110 46 193 18 3.82
2004 NOR 22.1 20 8 22 1 2.82
NYM 117.2 54 50 133 17 4.90
Seo seemed to come out of nowhere with his terrific 2003, as he was especially impressive in the first half of the season before beginning to regress toward presumably his true talent level. He was twenty-six at the time, so there wasn't much reason to expect further development, but with his good command he seemed like a reasonable bet to be a solid contributor to the Mets' rotation for the next couple of years. Then Rick Peterson came to town. Seo and Peterson never seemed to see eye to eye and as a result, last year, when the back end of the Mets' rotation needed all the help it could get, Seo was continually jerked around by Peterson and manager Art Howe, seemingly never secure in his spot in the rotation. He even pitched in relief three times. The team doesn't seem to have much more confidence in him this year than it did last and he's done little to engender it with his Spring Training performance. I still think Seo has the talent to be a suitable back-of-the-rotation starter, but at this point it's hard to see it happening with this organization. So that brings us to the last man standing, Matt Ginter.
YEAR TEAM IP K BB H HR ERA
2002 CHA 16.0 9 10 20 3 3.94
CHW 54.1 37 21 59 6 4.47
2003 CHA 68.1 52 22 66 2 3.03
CHW 3.1 0 1 2 1 13.50
2004 NOR 64.0 49 8 55 4 2.95
NYM 69.1 38 20 82 8 4.54
(CHA is Chicago's AAA affiliate in Charlotte.) With that performance record, it's hard to see what puts Ginter ahead of Seo on the the Mets' depth chart, but there he sits. Success in brief Spring Training action has no doubt helped his case. The fact that I'm not presenting Spring Training stats here is due as much to my inability to find them quickly as my disinclination to dignify such meaningless numbers. While, as I mentioned yesterday, there's reason to believe that Ginter could post a similar ERA to what Trachsel might have done this year, the likelihood of his matching Trachsel's recent durability is much slimmer. While Trachsel topped 200 innings each of the last year, Ginter hadn't even started a game since 2001 prior to last year. If the twenty-seven year old Ginter can stick around until Trachsel gets back, the fifth spot in the Mets' rotation probably won't be the disaster area that it was each of the last two years. And if the team's shot at contention hinged on the health of Steve Trachsel, it must not have been too secure to begin with. But this injury is one more thing that may lead the team's rotation to underperform the lofty expectations that some seem to have for it. I'm pretty confident about the top spot in the rotation. After that, I think they're going to need some luck. ¶ joe | 9:41 AM |
