Which Describes How You're Feeling

From the cloud of optimism that is Spring Training emerges actual news, as Steve Trachsel has had an MRI on his back and is on his way to Los Angeles to get a second opinion regarding the stiffness he felt after his start on Friday. Right now all we've got to respond to are vague pessimistic quotes from anonymous sources, but we should at least contemplate the idea of Trachsel not starting the regular season in the Mets' rotation. Would this be a disaster?

Well, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system pegs Jae Seo, Matt Ginter and Aaron Heilman--some conceiveable replacements--as putting up ERAs within a quarter of a run of Trachsel's this year if given the chance. Of course, Trachsel has tended to defy pessimistic projections in recent years. And the system projects young Yusmeiro Petit to be more than a run better than any of them this year. Neither Seo nor Heilman has exactly distinguished himself thus far in Spring Training and none of the Mets' leftovers have approached the kind of consistent adequacy that Trachsel has put forth in the last few years. Even at the ripe old age of thirty-four, Trachsel is more of a known quantity than any of the others, so his loss for any significant period of time would hurt the Mets. But while the potential fill-ins are the same guys who failed to set the world afire in a similar role last year, I don't think it'll be a catastrophe if they're called upon for a short time. If Trachsel misses months upon months and Victor Zambrano pitches like Victor Zambrano, the back end of the Mets' rotation could turn out to be disastrous, but it's a little early to be forecasting that.  ¶ joe | 5:39 PM |