Saturday, March 31, 2007
Hitting is fundamental
In 2006, the Mets' offense was the third best in the National League as they scored 834 runs, their highest season total since 1999. They got some big years from some players who shouldn't be expected to repeat, but they also had some significant holes which have since been filled. Several key contributors are still in the prime of their careers (or younger). As good as the offense was last year, no one should be surprised if it's as good or better this year.
Catcher Paul Lo Duca is one of those who will likely come back to earth a bit. He had a big year, hitting .318/.355/.428, probably the second best of his career behind his ridiculous 2001 (.320/.374/.543). He avoided the second-half fade that had become tradition for him and was just about everything his vocal supporters have ever claimed he was. The former heart and soul of the Los Angeles Dodgers finally played in a postseason game for the first time in his career and all it took was having a bunch of players who were better than him on the team. Now he's a catcher about to turn thirty-five and can't be expected to remain as healthy and productive as he was last year. Backup Ramon Castro could bounce back from a bad 2006 to relieve some pressure, but this position looks like one that will be less productive for the Mets in 2007.
First baseman Carlos Delgado is another Met in his mid-thirties, but he didn't do anything out of the ordinary in 2006. He hit .235/.361/.548, pretty similar to what he did in 2004 in Toronto. Still, this was an enormous improvement at a position that had been a black hole for the Mets since the start of this millennium. Delgado should be able to keep up this level of performance for at least another year.
Second base is a spot where many think the sky may fall in on the Mets. "Thirty-seven-year-old Jose Valentin certainly won't repeat his miraculous .271/.330/.490 season," they say. "Thirty-seven-year-old Damion Easley is far from an adequate backup plan," they bellow. It is hard to argue with either of these statements. But Valentin was not the only Met to man the keystone in 2006. The likes of Kazuo Matsui and Chris Woodward were so awful that the Mets actually got below average production from the position for the season as a whole. The average National League second baseman hit .272/.336/.422. Met second basemen hit .244/.300/.406. I don't think anyone would be stunned if Valentin and Easley were able to match or exceed that level of production. Yes, Valentin is sure to fade somewhat, but that will hardly doom the Mets to an early offseason.
Then there's David Wright. The Met third baseman didn't hit with a lot of power in the second half of 2006. His defense isn't so hot. And his .311/.381/.531 line was nearly identical to what he did in 2005. On the other hand, he's twenty-four years old and one of the best hitters in the game. Now he'll probably be batting second, the end result of which will be that he gets to hit more often this year than he did either of the last two. I think this will be a position of strength for the Mets for a little while longer.
The same could reasonably be said about shortstop. Jose Reyes finally made good on the promise he'd been showing since his 2003 debut, putting together a spectacular season at the age of twenty-three. He met or exceeded his career highs in walks, hits, doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases, hitting .300/.354/.487 while playing very good defense. Now the question is whether or not he can do it again. We won't know until he does or doesn't, but the all-around improvement he showed last year looked a lot more like real, sustainable growth than any kind of fluke. Reyes has gotten past the injury problems that slowed him early in his career and has begun to mature as a player. He is as fun to watch as any player in the game and seeing where he goes from here should be just as fun.
In contrast to the great infield of 2006, the Mets' outfield showed a lot of room for improvement, no spot more so than left field. After a terrific and healthy 2005, Cliff Floyd surprised few by failing to repeat in 2006. He played in just 97 games and hit .244/.324/.407, leaving the Mets' thin bench a lot of work to do. The Mets' one major move this offseason was to fill this hole with Moises Alou. Now, Alou will turn forty-one in July and he only played in 98 games for the Giants last year. But he also hit .301/.352/.571. He won't give the Mets anything on defense or play 150 games, but as long as he's in the lineup, he should provide a lot more offense than the Mets got out of this spot last year. If Willie Randolph can give him a couple of days a week off in favor of Endy Chavez or Lastings Milledge, maybe Alou can still be ambulatory come October.
The exception to the Mets' outfield troubles was center field, where Carlos Beltran followed up a disappointing 2005 with the best season of his career and finished fourth in NL MVP voting despite a rough September. To the extent that any one player can be said to have "carried" this team, it was Beltran with his exceptional combination of power, patience and defense. He hit .275/.388/.594 and tied the club record for home runs with 41. All this while hitting just .224/.368/.487 at home. He will turn thirty in April and should challenge for an MVP award or two in the years to come. His defense will be especially important this season given his statuesque wingmen.
Right now, officially, the Mets' starting right fielder is scheduled to be Shawn Green. This despite his lack of offense after being traded to the Mets last season, his laughable attempts at defense in the postseason and a poor Spring. To be fair, he did hit pretty well in the playoffs--.292/.346/.542 with three home runs. But his spring batting average of .154 is especially damning when compared to the .352 put up by Milledge. Now, generally a player's Spring Training stats have about as much predictive value as his horoscope ("When the moon is in the Seventh House and Jupiter aligns with Mars, you will be in the best shape of your career..."). But Green not hitting is hardly a new development. Milledge made the opening day roster, so hopefully he'll be able to play his way into a starting job before too long.
Of course, when Milledge stops being part of the Mets bench, it will be a pretty weak group. Chavez is back and will likely provide stellar defense at any outfield position, but he won't repeat the career year he had with the bat last season. Castro has been a solid backup catcher in his career, last year notwithstanding. Aside from those three and Easley, the Met reserves are Julio Franco and David Newhan. Franco didn't have a great year last year as his power declined significantly. I would never bet against the elder statesman of the major leagues, but it's hard to see him making a huge contribution this year. The thirty-three year old former Oriole Newhan couldn't even manage a .300 OBP either of the last two years so I don't have very high hopes for him either. The Mets just signed Ricky Ledee to a minor league deal, but that's probably not the solution to all of their bench problems. They're just going to have to be satisfied with an awesome starting lineup and a weak bench. Who knows? Maybe Green will seem useful by the standard of a pinch hitter once he gets demoted.
The Mets probably won't win 97 games again in 2007, but I think they still have to be the favorites to win the National League East. The Phillies should provide a stiffer challenge than they did last year, but they are still the Phillies. These Mets should be playoff-bound and once they reach the postseason, anything can happen. As a wise man once said, ya gotta believe.
In 2006, the Mets' offense was the third best in the National League as they scored 834 runs, their highest season total since 1999. They got some big years from some players who shouldn't be expected to repeat, but they also had some significant holes which have since been filled. Several key contributors are still in the prime of their careers (or younger). As good as the offense was last year, no one should be surprised if it's as good or better this year.
Catcher Paul Lo Duca is one of those who will likely come back to earth a bit. He had a big year, hitting .318/.355/.428, probably the second best of his career behind his ridiculous 2001 (.320/.374/.543). He avoided the second-half fade that had become tradition for him and was just about everything his vocal supporters have ever claimed he was. The former heart and soul of the Los Angeles Dodgers finally played in a postseason game for the first time in his career and all it took was having a bunch of players who were better than him on the team. Now he's a catcher about to turn thirty-five and can't be expected to remain as healthy and productive as he was last year. Backup Ramon Castro could bounce back from a bad 2006 to relieve some pressure, but this position looks like one that will be less productive for the Mets in 2007.
First baseman Carlos Delgado is another Met in his mid-thirties, but he didn't do anything out of the ordinary in 2006. He hit .235/.361/.548, pretty similar to what he did in 2004 in Toronto. Still, this was an enormous improvement at a position that had been a black hole for the Mets since the start of this millennium. Delgado should be able to keep up this level of performance for at least another year.
Second base is a spot where many think the sky may fall in on the Mets. "Thirty-seven-year-old Jose Valentin certainly won't repeat his miraculous .271/.330/.490 season," they say. "Thirty-seven-year-old Damion Easley is far from an adequate backup plan," they bellow. It is hard to argue with either of these statements. But Valentin was not the only Met to man the keystone in 2006. The likes of Kazuo Matsui and Chris Woodward were so awful that the Mets actually got below average production from the position for the season as a whole. The average National League second baseman hit .272/.336/.422. Met second basemen hit .244/.300/.406. I don't think anyone would be stunned if Valentin and Easley were able to match or exceed that level of production. Yes, Valentin is sure to fade somewhat, but that will hardly doom the Mets to an early offseason.
Then there's David Wright. The Met third baseman didn't hit with a lot of power in the second half of 2006. His defense isn't so hot. And his .311/.381/.531 line was nearly identical to what he did in 2005. On the other hand, he's twenty-four years old and one of the best hitters in the game. Now he'll probably be batting second, the end result of which will be that he gets to hit more often this year than he did either of the last two. I think this will be a position of strength for the Mets for a little while longer.
The same could reasonably be said about shortstop. Jose Reyes finally made good on the promise he'd been showing since his 2003 debut, putting together a spectacular season at the age of twenty-three. He met or exceeded his career highs in walks, hits, doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases, hitting .300/.354/.487 while playing very good defense. Now the question is whether or not he can do it again. We won't know until he does or doesn't, but the all-around improvement he showed last year looked a lot more like real, sustainable growth than any kind of fluke. Reyes has gotten past the injury problems that slowed him early in his career and has begun to mature as a player. He is as fun to watch as any player in the game and seeing where he goes from here should be just as fun.
In contrast to the great infield of 2006, the Mets' outfield showed a lot of room for improvement, no spot more so than left field. After a terrific and healthy 2005, Cliff Floyd surprised few by failing to repeat in 2006. He played in just 97 games and hit .244/.324/.407, leaving the Mets' thin bench a lot of work to do. The Mets' one major move this offseason was to fill this hole with Moises Alou. Now, Alou will turn forty-one in July and he only played in 98 games for the Giants last year. But he also hit .301/.352/.571. He won't give the Mets anything on defense or play 150 games, but as long as he's in the lineup, he should provide a lot more offense than the Mets got out of this spot last year. If Willie Randolph can give him a couple of days a week off in favor of Endy Chavez or Lastings Milledge, maybe Alou can still be ambulatory come October.
The exception to the Mets' outfield troubles was center field, where Carlos Beltran followed up a disappointing 2005 with the best season of his career and finished fourth in NL MVP voting despite a rough September. To the extent that any one player can be said to have "carried" this team, it was Beltran with his exceptional combination of power, patience and defense. He hit .275/.388/.594 and tied the club record for home runs with 41. All this while hitting just .224/.368/.487 at home. He will turn thirty in April and should challenge for an MVP award or two in the years to come. His defense will be especially important this season given his statuesque wingmen.
Right now, officially, the Mets' starting right fielder is scheduled to be Shawn Green. This despite his lack of offense after being traded to the Mets last season, his laughable attempts at defense in the postseason and a poor Spring. To be fair, he did hit pretty well in the playoffs--.292/.346/.542 with three home runs. But his spring batting average of .154 is especially damning when compared to the .352 put up by Milledge. Now, generally a player's Spring Training stats have about as much predictive value as his horoscope ("When the moon is in the Seventh House and Jupiter aligns with Mars, you will be in the best shape of your career..."). But Green not hitting is hardly a new development. Milledge made the opening day roster, so hopefully he'll be able to play his way into a starting job before too long.
Of course, when Milledge stops being part of the Mets bench, it will be a pretty weak group. Chavez is back and will likely provide stellar defense at any outfield position, but he won't repeat the career year he had with the bat last season. Castro has been a solid backup catcher in his career, last year notwithstanding. Aside from those three and Easley, the Met reserves are Julio Franco and David Newhan. Franco didn't have a great year last year as his power declined significantly. I would never bet against the elder statesman of the major leagues, but it's hard to see him making a huge contribution this year. The thirty-three year old former Oriole Newhan couldn't even manage a .300 OBP either of the last two years so I don't have very high hopes for him either. The Mets just signed Ricky Ledee to a minor league deal, but that's probably not the solution to all of their bench problems. They're just going to have to be satisfied with an awesome starting lineup and a weak bench. Who knows? Maybe Green will seem useful by the standard of a pinch hitter once he gets demoted.
The Mets probably won't win 97 games again in 2007, but I think they still have to be the favorites to win the National League East. The Phillies should provide a stiffer challenge than they did last year, but they are still the Phillies. These Mets should be playoff-bound and once they reach the postseason, anything can happen. As a wise man once said, ya gotta believe.
Labels: 2007 preview, hitting
¶ joe | 5:56 PM |
