Waiting For Pedro

A lot of negative things have been written about the Mets' starting rotation in recent months, and justifiably so. The surest thing in the bunch is a soft-tossing forty-one year old. Even now that the list has been pared down to the final five, question marks abound. There's plenty of reason for concern among Mets fans. But I think there's at least as much reason for excitement.

Beyond the two old men at the top of the list there are three pitchers the oldest of whom will be twenty-six at season's end. The Mets haven't had three starting pitchers this young playing major roles since Bobby Jones, Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson eleven years ago. And these three kids aren't just roster filler. You've got two newly minted playoff heroes and the most promising New York pitching prospect to actually reach the majors as a Met since the heady days of Generation K. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this could be a lot of fun.

First, we've got Tom Glavine. Last year Glavine went 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA in 198 innings, narrowly missing his third straight 200 IP season. He enters 2007 ten wins shy of 300 for his career and shouldn't have too much trouble reaching that magic number. Throughout his career, he's been about as consistently healthy as he has been good. While he won't be one of the top handful of pitchers in the league he'll almost surely be an important and dependable piece of the Mets staff.

Somewhat less dependable is the nominal number two, Orlando Hernandez. El Duque got off to a bad start last season, posting a 6.11 ERA in nine starts for the Diamondbacks. He pitched better for the Mets, cutting down on his hits, walks and home runs allowed as he shifted to a more pitcher-friendly environment. His 4.09 ERA in twenty starts was nice, but then he got hurt and missed the playoffs. The only thing we can be sure of for 2007 is that he won't be healthy for all of it. He's pitched over 200 innings in a season once, in 1999. He could very well give the Mets some solid innings for as long as he's healthy, but there's little doubt he'll have them dipping into their surplus starting pitching at some point.

John Maine is where things start to get interesting. Maine had a solid debut for the Mets last year, posting a 3.60 ERA in ninety innings and and pitching well in two of his three postseason starts. In the regular season he had some trouble with the home run ball, allowing fifteen to leave the yard, and got quite lucky when it came to balls in play being turned into outs, allowing just a .225 batting average on such balls, compared to a league average of .303. There's not much chance he'll repeat that. Still, if he can stay in the rotation all year and give the Mets an ERA around four, he'll be an improvement over every non-Glavine starter the Mets sent to the mound last year.

Even more interesting is Oliver Perez who, with a little help from He Who Is Called Endy, shut the Cardinals down for six innings in the Mets' biggest game of 2006. The 2004 season in which he was one of the best pitchers in baseball will always inspire hope and the NLCS wasn't the only time he gave New York fans a glimpse of that pitcher. If that Oliver Perez shows up this season, it could completely alter the complexion of this rotation. Maybe he'll never approach that kind of success (239 Ks and a 2.98 ERA in 196 IP) again. But I wouldn't be shocked if Rick Peterson did a better job coaching him than anyone employed by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the last three years.

Finally, there's Mike Pelfrey. The Mets' 2005 first round pick made it to the majors so fast they didn't have a chance to desperately exchange him for shiny veteran trinkets, making his debut less than six months after signing. His first taste of the majors didn't go so well as he posted a 5.48 ERA and a 13:12 K:BB ratio in 21.1 innings. He was much more impressive in tearing through three minor league levels, with a 2.43 ERA, 109 strikeouts and 33 walks in 96.1 innings. It will probably take him some time to establish some consistency at the major league level, but this is clearly a talented kid and it will be exciting to watch a young, homegrown starter grow up in a Mets uniform for once.

This group isn't going to strike fear into the hearts of the National League, but it wasn't starting pitching that carried the 2006 Mets as far as they went. The only guys who pitched more than 132.2 innings last year were Glavine and Steve Trachsel who, 15 wins or not, was not the kind of pitcher you'd want as your number two. The Mets stopped just short of pulling fans out of the stands to man the back of their rotation last year--in fact, that may have been how Jose Lima got four starts--and the only ones who were any good for any length of time were Maine and Hernandez. The situation may not be a whole lot better this year, but it's going to take some serious bad luck for the Mets to be reaching for the Limas and Geremi Gonzalezes of the world in 2007. And they might very well have an ace up their sleeve come July or August if a certain Dominican gentleman is feeling healthy.

The bullpen is a bit more troubling. Met relievers were excellent last year and some of the most important guys are back. There's Billy Wagner, who was great in the closer role, and Aaron Heilman, who was very good setting him up. Beyond that, there's not much we can be sure of. The recent news that Duaner Sanchez will miss most if not all of the season has left some spots up for grabs.

Pedro Feliciano returns to the lefty specialist role he did well in last year. Scott Schoeneweis is also a lefty, but hardly anything special. Rookie sidearmer Joe Smith will try to be the new Chad Bradford. Chan Ho Park will hope to be more successful in relief than he has been as a starter lately. And if all else fails, the Mets will send out Aaron Sele and try again the next day.

What was one of the best bullpens in baseball last year should be quite effective again in the eighth and ninth innings. Getting there might be a little trickier. Perhaps Park will make like Eric Gagne and go from unimpressive starter to dominant reliever. Maybe Smith's minor league success will translate smoothly to the majors. Someone like Ambiorix Burgos or Jorge Sosa could figure things out in the minors and make an impact. There's not much chance that all of these things will happen. Met relievers aren't about to turn into a half dozen Mel Rojases, but the bullpen won't be quite the strength it was in 2006.

All of this adds up to a pitching staff that's going to need its offense to score some runs. By a fortunate coincidence, the Mets have an offense capable of doing just that. I'll be back later this week with a look at those responsible for really sockin' the ball and knockin' those home runs over the wall.

Labels: 2007 preview, pitching

  ¶ joe | 11:52 PM |