Season half-full

The Mets reached the artificial midway point of the season two games ahead of their nearest competition and lucky to be there. After a strong start that left them with 34 wins and 18 losses at the end of May, they've gone 14 and 21. They are only two games behind their pace from last season in which the division race was decided somewhere around the middle of June. But the significant decline in all areas of the game over the last two months does not inspire confidence going forward.

The offense has been the biggest problem. What was one of the top few run-scoring apparatuses in the league last year and at the start of this year has fallen to the middle of the pack, eighth in the league in runs per game. Carlos Delgado's decline has been the most glaring--.265/.361/.548 in 2006, .242/.305/.435 in 2007--but several other players have also dropped off significantly. Paul Lo Duca has gone from a surprising .318/.355/.428 to a more predictable .274/.321/.372. Jose Valentin was a revelation in 2006 at .271/.330/.490 but in 2007 he's a thirty-seven -year-old man hitting .243/.297/.388. And Carlos Beltran has thus far failed to replicate his monster 2006 in which he hit .275/.388/.594, falling to just .264/.340/.477.

All of this is especially problematic given that no one else has stepped up with a big improvement to compensate. Jose Reyes is getting on base more at .387 compared to .354, but his slugging has dropped off from .487 to .439. David Wright's .292/.373/.506 line is basically the same thing he does every year, though he's stealing more bases and looks improved defensively. And after a hot start--.355/.412/.538 in April--it turns out Shawn Green is still Shawn Green at .275/.325/.428 for the year.

So several important hitters are having down years, the Mets still aren't getting anything from their corner outfielders and no one is having a huge year. So why are things going to be okay? Well, for one thing, Ruben Gotay and Ramon Castro are providing more offense off the bench than any 2006 reserve did. More even than He Who Is Called Endy. Secondly, Lastings Milledge is finally ready to return and rescue left field from the David Newhans of the world. Moises Alou could theoretically return at some point as well. But most importantly, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado are just better than this. Beltran has battled some minor leg injuries and Delgado had wrist surgery in the offseason and missed most of Spring Training. This may not excuse or even explain their performance thus far, but both seem healthy now and I think it is very reasonable to expect more of them in the second half.

The bullpen has also been something of a disappointment after a hot start. Billy Wagner has been great all year in non-All-Star competition and Pedro Feliciano has done almost as good a job of making Scott Schoeneweis obsolete as Schoeneweis himself. But everyone else has struggled at one point or another. Joe Smith got off to a phenomenal start but has cooled off recently, perhaps as a result of being overworked or the league just catching up to him. Aaron Heilman has been quite ordinary. Guillermo Mota has pitched like a guy who's not taking steroids anymore. Aaron Sele has been fine as the long man. As I may have mentioned, Schoeneweis has pitched poorly and been utilized ineptly.

The saving grace of the team has been the starting pitching, with an ERA of just 4.05. The Mike Pelfrey Experiment has not gone well thus far as the twenty-three year old has an ERA of 6.10 in eight starts with more walks than strikeouts. But aside from Pelfrey, the team's worst regular starter has been Tom Glavine with a 4.36 ERA. Glavine hasn't been much more than solid overall, but he has been durable as usual, leading the team in innings pitched. Jorge Sosa has been a surprisingly decent replacement for Pelfrey with a 3.92 ERA in eleven starts. Orlando Hernandez has occasionally been either injured or awful, making just thirteen starts and giving up five or more runs in four of them. But he's also been brilliant at times, allowing two or fewer runs in his other nine starts including four starts in which he pitched at least six shutout innings. This all adds up to a 3.22 ERA in 78.1 IP. Nothing El Duque could do in the second half would be shocking, whether it be getting blown out, getting injured or pitching a no hitter. Maybe he'll even do all three.

The stalwarts of the rotation have been two men who inspired much doubt prior to the season. Oliver Perez has a 3.14 ERA, 85 strikeouts and 37 walks in 94.2 innings. John Maine is at 2.71 with 93 Ks, 40 BBs and 109.2 IP. Perez has been somewhat inconsistent in his last few starts and has missed a bit of time with a minor injury but Maine has been healthy and excellent all year. The starting rotation was the team's biggest question mark prior to the season but right now, thanks in large part to these two, its ERA is more than half a run lower than in 2006. With the return of a certain future Hall Of Famer perhaps only a month away, this rotation could carry this team awfully far.

Now all the remains is for the Mets (48-39) to play about 74 more regular season games, weather permitting. The first four of these will take place at home against the Reds, who are tied for the worst record in the National League at 36-52. El Duque, Maine and Glavine will start the first three games for the Mets with Perez possibly making his return from the DL to pitch the Sunday finale. Bronson Arroyo (3-9, 4.84), Matt Belisle (5-6, 5.28) and Aaron Harang (9-2, 3.67) will start the first three for Cincinnati.  ¶ joe | 10:58 PM |